AGP Executive Report

Rural Economy & Land Use: A new survey finds Americans worry data centers tied to AI could strain rural land, water, and energy—raising concerns as many projects are built on farmland. Dairy Update: USDA data shows U.S. dairy cow numbers and milk output keep rising, with May milk production up 2.3% from a year ago, though growth is slowing. Farm Aid Push: The White House asked Congress for a supplemental package including $11.1B for farmers and a push for year-round E15, citing high costs and weak prices. Indigenous Food Systems: Tribes say cuts and uncertainty around USDA local food programs threaten culturally important crops and reliable markets for tribal producers. Weather & Water Stress: Colorado’s drought worsened into exceptional conditions across much of the state, with topsoil moisture and rangelands rated very poor to poor. Animal Health: Nevada confirmed equine infectious anemia at a horse facility and issued a quarantine, urging strict safety steps for owners. Trade & Policy: USMCA renewal is off the table in its current form, with farm groups reacting as talks shift toward new terms.

SNAP Policy Reversal (Iowa): Iowa’s “Healthy SNAP” waiver was vacated by USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service, forcing retailers to restore SNAP eligibility for all items that meet the federal definition of food—while Summer EBT continues under the same federal rules. Specialty Crop Disaster Request (Oregon): Gov. Tina Kotek asked USDA for a Secretarial Disaster Designation for Hood River and Wasco counties after a severe 2025 pear psylla outbreak, heat, and irrigation limits cut revenues by about half and caused an estimated $40M–$45M in losses. Pest Threat Update (Screwworm): USDA guidance and reporting highlighted the ongoing New World screwworm fight, with cases concentrated in Texas and new concerns for livestock and ranchers as control efforts expand. Border Agriculture Detection (CBP dog): CBP’s agriculture detector dog Freddie, injured in a 2025 assault, is back on the job and still making referrals—detecting seeds and other agricultural items in recent inspections. Trade Shock (USMCA/CUSMA): The U.S. declined to renew USMCA/CUSMA in its current form, moving to annual reviews and raising uncertainty for farm supply chains tied to North American trade. Water & Mining Due Process (Montana): Upper Missouri Waterkeeper won a temporary restraining order against Montana DEQ’s backroom approval process for mining near the Big Hole River, arguing the state skipped public notice and review.

USMCA Uncertainty for Farmers: The U.S. declined to automatically extend USMCA during its review, triggering a 10-year countdown with annual talks unless the pact is renewed for another 16 years—raising fresh market risk for North American agriculture. Trade Friction in the Review: Mexico’s economy minister said the U.S. is still pushing changes tied to rules of origin, compliance checks, and a new “economic security” chapter, while Mexico objects to U.S. tariff moves that include some agricultural seasonal import schemes. Glyphosate Court Fallout: The Supreme Court sided with Monsanto/Bayer on limits to state consumer-protection lawsuits over Roundup cancer warnings, and lawmakers are now moving to override the ruling—keeping pressure on weedkiller policy for corn and soybean growers. Drought Threats to Crops and Water: Extreme drought expanded across South Carolina ahead of the Fourth, with severe and extreme categories rising and water limits in place—another reminder that heat and dry spells are hitting farm and food costs. Beef Prices Stay Hot: With summer cookouts approaching, reports point to persistently high U.S. beef prices, tied to herd and supply constraints. Screwworm Watch: New World screwworm detections remain concentrated in Texas and New Mexico, with active cases still being tracked as officials warn of livestock risk.

Egg Market Crackdown: DOJ and 17 states reached settlements with Cal-Maine, Versova and Hickman’s over alleged egg price-fixing, with $3.3M in penalties and 53 million eggs set for donation; the companies deny wrongdoing. Fertilizer Cost Relief: USDA says a Trump proclamation temporarily suspends countervailing duties on certain phosphate imports, aiming to cut prices about 22% and save farmers an estimated $1.82B annually. Screwworm Readiness: Arizona’s University of Arizona received $3.74M to expand research, surveillance and outreach as New World screwworm spreads, with the U.S. importing sterile flies from Mexico to ramp response. Trade Policy Shock: U.S. Trade Representative says the U.S. won’t renew USMCA “in its current form,” starting a 10-year clock while negotiations continue—raising uncertainty for farm exports. Glyphosate Trade Fight: Bayer consolidated U.S. glyphosate under Ruveon after seeking Chinese glyphosate duties; farm groups warn higher herbicide costs. Food Safety & Health: Michigan health officials are investigating a cyclosporiasis outbreak with 170+ cases; separately, USDA reported $10.1B in SNAP improper payments tied to benefit errors. Rural Economy & Inputs: Indiana Farm Bureau’s cookout basket survey shows lower summer food costs, while Iowa is raising some highway speed limits—flagged as a safety issue for farm vehicles.

Egg Price-Fixing Probe: New York AG Letitia James and DOJ say three egg producers (Cal-Maine Foods, Versova, and Hickman’s Egg Ranch) coordinated bids tied to an egg price index from June 2022 to March 2025, with alleged emails urging “Strong bids, early and often,” helping drive a major jump in consumer prices. Egg Market Fallout: Other reporting shows egg prices have since crashed, squeezing producers’ profits after avian influenza disruptions and increased supply. Ag Crime Crackdown: Fresno County’s Agricultural Crimes Task Force arrested suspects tied to felony grand theft of peaches in Fresno and Tulare counties, seizing about 2,000 lbs. Screwworm Watch: Texas continues battling New World screwworm as confirmed cases rise, with ranchers gathering for updates and USDA/partners pushing prevention and response. Farm Input Pressure: Coverage links higher oil and fertilizer costs to tighter margins for Midwest farms, with energy and fertilizer prices feeding into planting and yield risk. USDA/Conservation Funding: NRCS and Lower Elkhorn NRD won approval for the North Fork Elkhorn River Watershed Improvement Plan, targeting flood damage reduction across 226,000 acres. Crop Production Signals: USDA reporting points to fewer corn acres and more soybeans for 2026, shaping what farmers plant next. Holiday Food Costs: A Fourth of July cookout survey finds record-high grocery prices for staples, with eggs and some sides shifting lower year over year. Market/Policy Context: Ongoing indirect US-Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz shipping updates keep energy-price pressure in focus for agriculture.

Fertilizer Cost Relief: Trump temporarily suspended phosphate fertilizer duties, with USDA estimating about $1.82B in annual savings and roughly a 22% price drop for more than 100,000 farms. Herbicide Trade Fight: Bayer asked for US duties on Chinese-made glyphosate, a move that farm groups say could raise input costs after Bayer’s legal win against many Roundup warning lawsuits. SNAP Oversight: USDA released SNAP payment error rates that will determine which states must cover 5%–15% of federal benefits; Iowa’s rate (5.34%) keeps it below the 6% threshold. Disaster Declarations: USDA issued Virginia a secretarial disaster declaration for late spring frost and freeze damage affecting agriculture and forestry. Livestock Biosecurity: Arizona received a $3.74M USDA grant to boost early warning and defense against New World screwworm. Food Safety: USDA warned consumers about potentially Listeria-contaminated chicken Caesar wraps sold in Minnesota and Wisconsin (no longer available, but don’t eat if still in the fridge). Farm Governance: USDA is taking nominations for 2026 Farm Service Agency county committees, due Aug. 3. Wildfire Risk Policy: Sen. Adam Schiff joined a bipartisan effort to fund removal of hazardous woody debris after forest thinning.

Fertilizer Relief for Farmers: Trump temporarily suspended some phosphate duties on Morocco imports, aiming to cut costs and boost supply after Iran-war disruptions; USDA estimates about $1.82B in annual savings and a ~22% price drop for more than 100,000 farms. Drought Watch: North Carolina remains in severe to exceptional drought across many counties, with officials urging residents to follow local water restrictions as dry conditions continue into next week. Biofuels Policy: Wisconsin lawmakers pushed to make year-round E15 sales permanent, arguing it could expand corn demand for ethanol and benefit farmers if EPA waivers become law. Animal Health: New World screwworm cases are still holding at 27 total, with active cases concentrated in Texas, as cross-border response continues. SNAP Food Rules Clash: Arkansas is moving ahead with a SNAP ban on candy and soda despite a recent court ruling, setting up another legal fight over federal food-aid limits. Trade & Markets: Grain futures were mixed ahead of major USDA reports, while oil prices edged higher amid uncertainty around U.S.-Iran talks.

Fertilizer Supply Shock: Trump authorized a temporary suspension of certain duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco, citing disrupted global supply chains tied to conflicts and the Iran war—an issue farmers are already feeling as planting and input decisions tighten. Grain Markets Watch: Corn and soybean prices are swinging on trade uncertainty, biofuel policy, and USDA report expectations, with traders bracing for the June 30 planted acreage and grain stocks updates. Disaster Recovery for Farmers: An EF-3 tornado hit Effingham County, Illinois, destroying grain storage and equipment and stripping corn and soybean fields—cleanup and rebuilding decisions are still underway. SNAP Under Pressure: DOJ sued Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania over alleged refusal to provide SNAP data to USDA, while Arizona is racing to cut its SNAP payment error rate below 6% to avoid major federal penalties. Healthy Food Access: USDA’s Healthy Food Financing Initiative opened a $20M grant round to expand local and regional partnerships that bring healthier food options to underserved communities. Pest & Plant Health: Michigan reminded residents to watch for spotted lanternfly as confirmed populations spread in southeastern parts of the state.

Labor Shortage & Farm Work: The H-2A temporary agricultural worker program keeps accelerating, with position certifications up more than 25% since FY2021 and on pace to set a new FY2026 record. Farm Finance Stress: Illinois family farm bankruptcies rose for a third straight year, underscoring how rising costs and weak margins are pushing operations toward failure. Food Assistance Pressure: SNAP demand is climbing as grocery prices rise and federal cuts bite; meanwhile, USDA-released payment error rates show states like South Dakota running far more efficiently than others, with penalties looming for high-error states. Ag Policy & Markets: California senators are pushing back on CFTC actions tied to prediction markets, arguing they could undermine state and tribal oversight. Poultry Health: South Dakota State researchers report progress on a vaccine for avian metapneumovirus subtype B, aiming to strengthen U.S. poultry disease control. Weather & Crops: Grain futures slid as Midwest heat looks less durable, with traders watching USDA reports and crop progress. Ag Infrastructure & Growth: Agristo’s planned potato processing plant in Grand Forks moves forward with a groundbreaking, targeting major annual processing capacity and jobs for Red River Valley growers.

Organic Oversight: Sens. Dave McCormick and John Fetterman teamed up with USDA to introduce a risk-based overhaul of organic certification, aiming to cut repetitive burdens on long-compliant farms while focusing reviews where risk is higher. State Fair Politics: Pennsylvania won a spot at Washington’s “Great American State Fair” after opting out over costs and sponsorship issues—now backed by private partners and the senators, with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins involved. Rural Vet Shortage: Montana lawmakers are revisiting a bill to address critical rural veterinarian shortages, where ranchers say the nearest help can be hours away. Dairy Modernization: New York reported nearly 90% of its $21.6M Dairy Modernization Grants are completed or underway to upgrade equipment and storage. Biofuels & Soy: USDA’s Regenerative Feedstock Rule could boost the 45Z biofuel credit value for soy grown with voluntary conservation practices. Livestock Health Threat: Texas screwworm response is ramping up with a sterile fly facility expected to produce tens of millions of pupae weekly starting in July. Hog Numbers: USDA’s quarterly report put U.S. hog and pig inventory at 73.7M head, down slightly year over year. SNAP Pressure: Alabama’s SNAP payment error rate rose to 9.52% for FY2025, and the state faces added costs under federal rules. Pest & Disease Watch: Illinois tick species are spreading across more counties, raising concern for Lyme and Alpha-gal risks. Heat Stress: Minnesota issued an extreme heat warning as humidity pushes heat index values toward 105°F, with outdoor workers and vulnerable groups at higher risk.

Food Safety: USDA issued a public health alert for Private Selection Honey Dijon boneless skinless chicken breasts (rib meat) after an undeclared allergen (eggs) was found; products were sold in 21-oz vacuum packs with “best if used by” June 28, 2026, and lot code 15326A across nine states. Animal Health: Florida adopted emergency rules to stop New World screwworm from entering the state after a Texas case; warm-blooded animal imports from infested zones face certification, inspection, quarantine, or refusal. USDA Biosecurity: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins opened a sterile fly production facility in Metapa, Mexico, aimed at boosting weekly sterile New World screwworm fly output to protect US ranchers. Farm Economy: The Kansas City Fed’s Agricultural Credit Survey says the US farm economy is in a 12th straight quarter downturn, with net farm income projected to fall and bankruptcies rising. Pollinators & Chemicals: Georgia Tech research funded by USDA found low-dose sulfoxaflor can alter bumblebee gene activity, raising concerns for future pollination. Farm Labor & Immigration: Trump administration expanded H-2A guest-worker access for dairy farms, a move that dairy groups support but immigration hard-liners and some farmers oppose. Policy & Food Assistance: A judge blocked Colorado’s SNAP waiver that would have restricted sugary drinks/candy purchases, leaving other similar waivers in limbo. Trade/Politics: The US and Mexico inaugurated sterile fly efforts while broader US-Iran tensions continued to roil markets and shipping tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

Biofuels & Rural Markets: Sen. Dick Durbin met Illinois soybean leaders and Incobrasa to stress how biodiesel supports soybean farmers and the need for stable federal policy. Trade & Grain Prices: Idaho’s wheat deal with Taiwan is keeping demand steady, but producers still feel broader tariff-driven uncertainty as wheat prices sit in a tight range. Animal Health & Border Biosecurity: USDA and Mexico inaugurated a sterile fly plant in Chiapas to fight New World screwworm; Texas ranchers backed the expanded sterile-fly capacity, while Missouri updated livestock entry rules after Texas detections. Disaster Relief: USDA issued a Virginia disaster declaration for spring frost and freeze damage, unlocking help for affected farms. Specialty Crops Funding: The administration’s supplemental request includes $10B for specialty crop growers, with Rep. Adam Gray calling it critical amid rising costs and trade instability. Food Safety: Reser’s recalled mislabeled “pasta salad” that may actually be chicken salad due to undeclared egg and milk allergens. SNAP & Fraud: A federal judge sentenced a North Carolina man for stealing over $100k in SNAP benefits, underscoring ongoing enforcement. Farm Policy Participation: USDA FSA opened nominations for 2026 county committee elections, a key local lever for administering farm programs.

Disaster Relief for Virginia Farmers: USDA issued a secretarial disaster declaration for 43 Virginia counties plus 61 contiguous counties after late-spring frost and freeze damage, giving producers access to federal help as many may not harvest until 2027. Bird Flu Response in Wisconsin: Wisconsin officials confirmed another H5N1 case in a Jefferson County commercial poultry flock; the premises is quarantined and birds will be depopulated to protect the food system. New World Screwworm Tightens Idaho Rules: After USDA confirmed NWS in Texas, Idaho expanded entry requirements for warm-blooded animals from infested zones, including CVIs issued within five days and movement-permit checks. SNAP Error Rates and Penalties in Illinois: Illinois’ SNAP payment error rate rose to 14.7% in FY2025, with federal cost-sharing penalties looming if rates stay high. USDA Rural Lending Crackdown: USDA removed 10 lenders from its OneRD Guaranteed Lending Program for “irresponsible” noncompliance, citing about $620M in delinquent loans tied to the affected lenders. Wildfire Worker Health Protections: The Forest Service and Interior rolled out new steps to reduce smoke exposure for federal wildland firefighters, including expanded N95 access and standardized decontamination.

USDA & Farm Policy: USDA proposed tougher enforcement for the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA), including removing discretion to reduce civil penalties for late or missed filings—foreign landholders and investors are being urged to check whether their US acreage, leases, or acquisitions trigger new reporting. Pesticides & Liability: The Supreme Court backed Bayer/Monsanto in a Roundup warning-label fight, giving Illinois farmers more label certainty and limiting state-level “failure to warn” claims. Dairy Markets: USDA set July Class I base milk at $21.33/cwt, while fluid sales inched up in April and whole milk led gains. Animal Health & Biosecurity: CBP reminded travelers that dogs entering the US must meet USDA APHIS and CDC screwworm-related requirements, including recent inspections and specific documentation. SNAP & Rural Impacts: Idaho won approval to restrict SNAP purchases of candy and soda, while Indiana’s SNAP payment error rate rose to 9.77%, raising potential future state penalty exposure. Trade & Risk: With Iran tensions driving uncertainty, Trump again pushed for using unfrozen Iranian assets to buy US farm products, while farmers weigh higher costs and volatile demand. Weather & Harvest: Iowa growers are watching uneven fields and a coming heat dome that could stress crops.

Pesticide Legal Shock: The U.S. Supreme Court sided with Bayer/Monsanto in Monsanto v. Durnell, blocking many state “failure-to-warn” Roundup cancer claims and shifting more labeling responsibility to federal regulators. Regenerative Agriculture Push: USDA and the White House highlighted an executive order plus a final Regenerative Feedstock Rule aimed at creating biofuel market value for farmers using regenerative practices. Farm Exports to Iran: Trump says the U.S. will use unfrozen Iranian assets to buy U.S. wheat, soybeans and corn, while Iran disputes the terms—raising fresh questions for grain demand. Drought Watch: South Dakota remains dry, with about 53% in drought and another 30% abnormally dry, stressing soil moisture and agriculture. SNAP Fallout: Indiana’s new SNAP restrictions start July 1, and separate reporting shows participation and error-rate pressures are reshaping how states manage food assistance. Food Supply Chain Safety: EPA stepped up enforcement against smuggled illegal pesticides at major ports, including a recent seizure of an unregistered product. Animal Welfare Labels: A poll finds many Kroger shoppers feel misled by egg carton claims and want cage-free promises kept.

Supreme Court & Pesticides: In Monsanto v. Durnell, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled federal pesticide-label rules block most state “failure to warn” lawsuits over Roundup cancer claims, a major win for Bayer/Monsanto and a setback for agricultural states that rely on glyphosate-based herbicides. Farm Policy & Fuel: Trump signed agriculture-related executive orders and included year-round E15 plus $10B in temporary crop aid in an Iran war supplemental request, with Senate Ag Chair John Boozman calling agriculture a key part of the package. Farm Bill Momentum: Sen. John Boozman unveiled “Farm Bill 2.0” draft language, while Sen. Deb Fischer highlighted the next Farm Bill’s central role in SNAP, conservation, and disaster/market risk coverage. Disaster on the Ground: South Mississippi watermelon growers face major losses after heavy rain and flooding, with some farms expecting only about 40% of normal output. SNAP Pressure on States: Alabama’s SNAP payment error rate rose to 9.52% in FY2025, raising potential state cost-share penalties as USDA pushes stricter integrity rules. Pest Threat Response: USDA announced $105M to fight the New World screwworm threat as cases expand in Texas. Local Food Supply Chain Resilience: Hyde-Smith and Schiff introduced the American Food Supply Chain Resiliency Act to make USDA’s RFSI program permanent and create regional food hubs.